Week 17 NFL Pick: San Francisco 49ers Take On Hapless St Louis Rams
Friday, December 30, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
The NFC West champion San Francisco 49ers can lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye with a win at St Louis on Sunday. San Francisco can also clinch the No. 2 seed with a tie and a New Orleans loss or tie or with a New Orleans loss. But the easiest route to a more convenient path to the Super Bowl would be a second win over the struggling Rams in less than a month. The 49ers won the first meeting 26-0 on Dec. 4 in San Francisco.
It has been a long time since the San Francisco 49ers played some meaningful football in the regular season's final week. Thanks to a great year under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, they'll be doing so later in January as well.
Alex Smith and the rest of the 49ers aren't worried about the risk of rust that comes with having a week off, but it does work in their favor that this regular-season finale means something.
San Francisco actually had a chance to lock up the bye last weekend after a 19-17 win over Seattle, but the Saints were able to knock off the Falcons the following day to keep pace.
Still, thanks to four field goals from David Akers, including the game-winning 39-yarder late in the fourth quarter, the 49ers moved to 12-3 after recording their second straight win. They are now looking for their first 13-win season since 1997 and haven't won six road games in a single campaign since 1996.
Smith was credited with his fifth come-from-behind win of the season, and four of those have now come on the road to match Joe Montana's club record set in 1989.
San Francisco's current quarterback and its star-studded defense didn't have much trouble when they hosted St. Louis back on Dec. 4, cruising to a 26-0 victory behind four Akers field goals and a pair of 50-yard-plus touchdown passes by Smith.
Despite that blowout win, San Francisco will still play it cautious with the 2-13 Rams.
Embattled Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo, who has begun to hear rumors of his possible departure at season's end, also expects the Niners to give his club its all given what is on the line.
The Rams will simply be going after some points after getting shut out last weekend in a 27-0 loss to a Pittsburgh club that was without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger due to a high ankle sprain.
St. Louis, though, was without its starting signal-caller in Sam Bradford for a second straight week and the fifth time in 2011 due to a high ankle sprain of his own. Kellen Clemens got a second straight start, but passed for just 91 yards.
It marked the second six-game slide for the Rams this season and dropped them to 10-37 overall under Spagnuolo.
Bradford would like to get on the field for this game, but was unable to practice early in the week and has yet to see the progress in the ankle that he needs.
The Rams have a slim 61-60-2 edge in their overall regular-season series with the 49ers, but San Francisco has taken six of the past seven meetings between the teams following its 26-0 home shutout of St. Louis in Week 13. The Niners swept their home-and-home set with the Rams in both 2008 and 2009, with St. Louis earning a split last season because of a 25-17 home triumph in Week 16 that triggered the dismissal of then-San Francisco head coach Mike Singletary immediately afterward. The 49ers had prevailed in three straight trips to the Edward Jones Dome prior to that loss.
The 49ers also bested the Rams in the lone playoff encounter between the clubs, a 30-3 verdict at Candlestick Park in the 1989 NFC Championship when the Rams where still based in Los Angeles.
Spagnuolo is 1-4 against San Francisco during his two-plus seasons at the helm, while Harbaugh won his only previous matchup with both St. Louis and Spagnuolo as an NFL head coach with last month's victory.
Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, January 1, 2012. Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, Missouri
Last Week's results:
- San Francisco 49ers (-2) beats host Seattle Seahawks 19-17
- St Louis Rams (+15.5) loses to host Pittsburgh Steelers 27-0.
Last week's ATS:
- Favourite San Francisco 49ers (12-3) pushed
- Favourite San Francisco 49ers (12-3) pushed
NFL Football Odds: 49ers -11, O/U 35.5
Playoff Picture:
- San Francisco 49ers: Clinched the NFC West. San Francisco clinches a first-round bye with a win or a NO loss. COMMENT: If both the 49ers and Saints win out, San Francisco would get the No. 2 seed.
- St Louis Rams: Eliminated (week 12)
San Francisco's resurgence has followed the same arc as Smith's rise. Smith has won 13 of his past 16 starts dating to last season and needs only 69 passing yards for his first 3,000-yard season. But the 49ers have been anything but a one-dimensional team – they lead the NFL in scoring defense (13.5 points per game) and have one of the best kicking games in the league with Akers, who has made an NFL-record 42 field goals, and Pro Bowl punter Andy Lee, who leads the NFC with 50.5 yards per kick.
St-Louis has had a revolving door at quarterback this season with starter Sam Bradford battling various injuries. Bradford has missed the past two games with a high ankle sprain, and backup A.J. Feeley has been sidelined by a broken thumb, making Clemens the starter the past two games. Clemens struggled in last week's 27-0 loss at Pittsburgh with only 91 yards on 9-of-24 passing.
The 49ers lead the NFL with a plus-26 turnover ratio, having logged 36 takeaways to 10 turnovers this season. With the Rams likely to start Clemens again this weekend, San Francisco's playmaking linebackers and ball-hawking secondary could increase that number this weekend.
Smith has been steady all season and doesn't turn the ball over. That is because he knows he doesn't have to force things thanks to Akers, with his 42 field goals this season. Akers also has a career-high 156 points on the year, making him the first player in the league to go over the 150 mark since LaDainian Tomlinson had 186 in 2006.
The Rams have nothing to lose, so they should be nice and relaxed. There is also some thought that they are playing for the job of Spagnuolo, meaning the entire roster should be giving 100 percent in this otherwise meaningless game. San Francisco knows a team with nothing to lose is a dangerous one, so St-Louis will need to capitalize on that mental edge.
Smith is 5-1 in his past six starts against St-Louis and had a 142.3 rating in the most recent meeting. The 49ers are 10-0 when Smith starts and has a rating over 100.
Rams RB Steven Jackson has rushed for 1,069 yards, his team-record seventh consecutive season over 1,000.
San Francisco DE Aldon Smith leads NFL rookies with 14 sacks and needs one for the most ever by a rookie.
St-Louis is 5-17-2 ATS in its last 24 games when playing at home against San Francisco
St-Louis is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
St-Louis is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against St-Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Francisco's last 11 games when playing St-Louis
San Francisco is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Many are fairly wondering just how much effort the 49ers will put into this game with an eye on a bigger prize down the road. After all, San Francisco can still get a bye with a loss. However, the Niners have showed a blue-collar attitude all season long, and it would be shocking if Harbaugh let his players take their feet off the gas, especially early on. That's bad news for a banged- up and overmatched Rams team that took a big step back this year and could see some big changes after this contest.
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NFL Football Pick: Take 49ers.
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Tags
a.j. feeley - aldon smith - alex smith - andy lee - ben roethlisberger - david akers - edward james dome - jim harbaugh - kellen clemens - ladainian tomlinson
