Is Upset Brewing as No. 3 Baylor Battles No. 10 St. Mary's?
Friday, March 26, 2010
by BetUS.com
The 2010 NCAA Championship Basketball Tournament has been a literal ‘upset fest’ with a multitude of lower seeded teams consistently beating their higher-ranked counterparts.
After seeing another No.1 seed fall in Thursday night’s Sweet Sixteen contests, the third-seeded Baylor Bears will have to be at their best in order to not get upset by the 10th-seeded St. Mary's Gaels when they take to the court at Reliant Stadium tonight at 7:25 PM ET.
Friday, March 26, 7:25 PM ET
NCAAB Betting Odds: Baylor -5
O/U) 142
TV: CBS
St. Mary's Gaels (28-5 SU, 21-10 ATS, 16-13-1 O/U)
Baylor Bears (27-7 SU, 17-10 ATS, 18-9 O/U)
Baylor 411
Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.
Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Junior guard LaceDarius Dunn scored a game-high 26 points to lead Baylor Bears to a 76-68 victory over Old Dominion in the second-round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Baylor Bears covered the college basketball betting odds as a 4.5-point favorite as Josh Lomers added 14 points and Tweety Carter, 12 in the win. The Bears average 77.3 points per game while allowing 65.7 points per contest defensively.
Saint Mary’s 411
Gaels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Gaels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Gaels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
St. Mary's Gaels has already recorded two upsets in this year’s tournament and looked absolutely phenomenal in knocking off second-seeded Villanova 75-68 in the second round of the NCAA Tournament at the Dunkin Donuts Center Saturday.
The St. Mary's Gaels covered the college basketball betting line as a 4-point to improve to a perfect 4-0 ATS over the last four games and 6-1 ATS over the last seven games overall. The Gaels average 79.4 points per game while allowing 66.2 points per contest defensively.
Analysis: I really, really like the St. Mary’s Gaels and believe they have a very legitimate shot to win this contest after seeing them manhandle the Villanova Wildcats in the second round, not to mention the team’s first round win over a higher ranked Richmond team in its tournament opener.
However, I think the Baylor Bears will win this game and cover the NCAA basketball betting line by the slimmest of margins, in large part because of its superior athleticism trio of star players in Dunn, Carter and forward Ekpe Udoh.
I know the Gaels have five players that average double figures in scoring, led by 6-11 senior center Omar Samhan who averages a stellar 21.5 points and 10.8 rebounds per game, but I’m not so sure St. Mary’s would even be in this game had Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds played his ‘normal’ game instead of shooting a horrific 2-for-11 from the field in Villanova’s second round loss.
I hate going against the Gaels and will admit that they have a more than legitimate chance of covering the NCAA betting line tonight, but in the end, I believe the Baylor Bears will be able to maintain their focus when the Gaels make a run and the fans at Reliant Stadium start rooting for the underdog.
It’s probably going to be very close, but I say the Baylor Bears narrowly cover the NCAA betting odds.
BetUS Sportsbook NCAAB Expert Picks: Baylor Bears -5 Points
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Tags
basketball tournament - baylor bears - ncaa tournament - reliant stadium - st. marys gaels - sweet sixteen
