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Basketball Playoff Props – Duncan Still Vital for Spurs

Thursday, May 06, 2010

by BetUS.com

NBA betting Odds

NBA playoff proposition bettors know that one of the vital cogs of the San Antonio Spurs through the years, and to this day, has been their former MVP big man, Tim Duncan, who also has a space made for him in the Hall of Fame.

While it may be a bit of an exaggeration to day that Duncan is in the "twilight" of his career, he has admittedly slowed down a bit, and his 17.9 points and 10.1 rebounds a game, while hefty statistics for the vast majority of NBA players, are the lowest in his 13-year career.

Duncan has often accepted more of a supporting role alongside fellow stars Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili with the Spurs, but after a Game 1 loss to Phoenix in the Western Conference semi-finals, his team may need a big performance from him in order to avoid going down 2-0.

In the NBA betting proposition we have before us, the over/under on Duncan's points and rebounds combined is 31.5. Will he exceed it or fall below it? The price is -115 either way.

YOU WANT YOUR PROPS?
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
Western Conference Semi-Finals - Game 2
Wednesday, May 5 - 9 PM ET
TIM DUNCAN - TOTAL POINTS + REBOUNDS
Over 31.5 -115
Under 31.5 -115

Duncan may be at the point in his career where he realizes he can do things that help his team win that don't necessarily involve scoring, and I think that is the same place Kevin Garnett sees himself as well. Still, Duncan's offense is probably better at this stage than Garnett's is.

Let's take a look at Tim Duncan's game log. In the last five regular season games he played, he averaged 14.6 points in about 27 minutes. In the series against Dallas, his playing time stepped up to 37 minutes a contest, and in the first three games he scored 27, 25 and 25 points.

However, in the last three games, two of which his team won, he hit just 12 field goals in 35 attempts, with 32 points. he hit just 48% of his free throws for the series, which is well below his season average, and he was a dreadful one for seven in the clinching Game 6.

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In Game 1 against Phoenix, he got 15 shot attempts and scored 20 points, and that included another subpar night at the stripe, where he converted just four of nine free throws. Clearly he needs to shoot the ball more, and needs consistency at the line. His scoring total could have been higher.

With two point guards shuffling in and out of the lineup, and sometimes playing at the same time, the Spurs are fully equipped to play from the outside, but the preferred mode of the offense is still to run things through Tim Duncan.

He is the key to anything they do in the half-court, although he is not the guy who triggers them on transition. In Game 2, if the Spurs and coach Gregg Popovich haven't decided that they are going to slow down the pace at all costs, they are fools.

More half-court offense should mean more opportunity for Tim Duncan to handle the ball. The player guarding him, Amare Stoudamire, has never been known as a diligent defender, and although Duncan's career stats against Phoenix may be a little deceiving for purposes of our conversation (22.5 ppg, 12.3 rpg), what he's done against the Suns this year is still incredibly solid.

Yes, his rebounding number would be down (10.3 per contest), but with 23 points a game on almost 62% shooting, you could legitimately say that Tim Duncan has as much success against Phoenix as he does with any other team.

I am looking for him to be a bigger part of what is going on, which will send me to the OVER in the NBA prop betting odds.

BetUS Sportsbook JAY'S PLAY: OVER 31.5 (-115) ***
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