Aengus Moorehead NFL Football Week 8 Betting Picks
Saturday, October 30, 2010
by Aengus Moorehead
The playoff picture has gotten a heck of a lot cloudier for a lot of teams across the NFL. The biggest one to point the finger at right now is the Dallas Cowboys. Not only did Dallas fall to 1-5 on the season both SU and ATS after a 41-35 loss on Monday Night Football, but it also lost its QB Tony Romo for at least the next month and a half and potentially for the rest of the season with a broken clavicle.
Needless to say, things for Dallas are absolutely brutal right now, and unless QB Jon Kitna is capable of taking this team to the Promised Land from way back in the NFC East race, the year is over for Dallas and its Head Coach, Wade Phillips should already be packing his bags and working on his resume.
The playoffs are severely in doubt right now for the San Diego Chargers as well. The Bolts are sitting in dead last in the AFC West at 2-5 after a late rally came up just short against the New England Patriots. The prospects of collecting a Wild Card are awful in this conference, especially with four teams with two losses that aren't in first place in their division right now, while the Kansas City Chiefs are now three clear in the loss column with just nine to play.
Underdogs ended up going 9-4 ATS this weekend in a sparkling display. They also ended up winning six games outright as well.
My record against the spread:
Last week: 10-4
Season: 55-49.
This week’s blue chip prediction: Oakland (-2.5) over Seattle.
This week’s upset special: Washington (+2.5) over Detroit.
Blowout of the week: Denver over San Francisco.
Idle teams: Atlanta-Baltimore-Chicago-NY Giants-Philadelphia-Cleveland
- Denver Broncos (-1.5) vs San Francisco 49ers (London, England)
Last week’s result:
Denver (-6.5) loses to visiting Oakland 59-14.
San Francisco (-3.5) loses to host Carolina 23-20.
Last week against the Spread:
Denver loses outright; San Francisco loses outright.
Analysis:
The Broncos defense seems vulnerable after the walloping they took against the Raiders. However, teams that are thoroughly embarrassed one week often play well the next. The Broncos are 10th offensively, and the 49ers' own defense showed vulnerability against a lowly Panthers offense. In the end, this will come down to preparation. The 49ers will have been on the road 10 straight days including a week of practice on the outskirts of London. The Broncos will do the bulk of their preparation at home and won't have to deal with nearly as many distractions. Take Broncos.
Be a player and bet on Denver (-1.5) vs San Francisco at Bodog Sportsbook
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Last week’s result:
Jacksonville (+4.5) loses to host Kansas City 42-20. Dallas (-3.5) loses to visiting NY Giants 41-35.
Last week against the Spread:
Jacksonville loses and does not cover; Dallas loses outright.
Analysis:
The Cowboys are a team in disarray, but so is Jacksonville. The Cowboys haven't been 1-5 since 1989 — they finished 1-15 that season — and they have lost three consecutive games. If they don't win this game, then that losing streak will probably reach six with games at Green Bay and the New York Giants the next two weeks. Jacksonville is 1-2 on the road with a victory over winless Buffalo and a couple of blowout losses. David Garrard returns after missing a game with a concussion. Jacksonville views this as an opportunity to steal a road win and move to .500. That should be enough incentive to beat a team that has nothing to play for except pride. Take Jaguars.
Be a player and bet on Jacksonville (+6.5) at Dallas at Bodog Sportsbook
- Washington Redskins (+2.5) at Detroit Lions
Last week’s result:
Washington (+3.5) beats host Chicago 17-14. Detroit was idle.
Last week against the Spread:
Washington upsets.
Analysis:
For whatever reason, the Lions are a different team at home. And now they'll have a completely healthy offense. The Redskins have been inconsistent, but if they stick to their running game, they could cause the Lions fits. Detroit's offense wouldn't get as many shots and, the Lions are vulnerable to giving up big plays on the ground. While they've gotten better in that area, they'll still cough up a 60-yarder here and there and that might be enough to get the Redskins over the top -- unless the Lions get the ball last. Either way, this is going down to the wire. Take Redskins.
Be a player and bet on Washington (+2.5) at Detroit at Bodog Sportsbook
- Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at St Louis Rams
Last week’s result:
Carolina (+3.5) beats visiting San Francisco 23-20. St-Louis (+2.5) loses to visiting Tampa Bay 18-17.
Last week against the Spread:
Carolina upsets; St-Louis loses but covers.
Analysis:
The Rams have regained some semblance of a home-field advantage by winning their last three games at the Edward Jones Dome. And pre-game ceremonies to retire the jersey number (80) of former Rams wide receiving great Isaac Bruce should get the crowd fired up. But the last thing the Rams need to do is take the 1-5 Panthers lightly, particularly coming on the heels of a wrenching loss in Tampa Bay. This one won't be a cakewalk, but the Rams should be able to take a 4-4 record into the bye week. Take Rams.
Be a player and bet on Carolina (+2.5) at St-Louis at Bodog Sportsbook
- Miami Dolphins (+1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Last week’s result:
Miami (+3.5) loses to visiting Pittsburgh 23-22. Cincinnati (+3.5) loses to host Atlanta 39-32.
Last week against the Spread:
Miami loses but covers; Cincinnati loses but does not cover.
Analysis:
The Bengals are facing the wrong team at the wrong time in the wrong place. They return home to Paul Brown Stadium, where they're supposed to have a home field advantage. Oh yeah? That's not the case in this showdown between teams that are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive. According to STATS LLC, the Dolphins are the first team since the 1982 St. Louis Cardinals to start a season 0-3 at home and 3-0 on the road. Miami is on the road and that spells trouble for the Bengals, who hope to end a three-game losing streak.
Cincinnati's best home record since Marvin Lewis took over as head coach in 2003 was last year at 6-2. No opponent fears entering "The Jungle," especially the Dolphins, who lead the series, 13-5. The Bengals' 20th ranked defense lost a dynamite playmaker in CB Adam "Pacman" Jones to a neck injury (herniated disc) and the only team with fewer sacks than Cincinnati is Tampa Bay (5.0). The Bengals will struggle trying to stop this hungry, well-balanced foe. Take Dolphins.
Be a player and bet on Miami (+1.5) at Cincinnati at Bodog Sportsbook
- Buffalo Bills (+7.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Last week’s result:
Buffalo (+13.5) loses to host Baltimore 37-34. Kansas City (-4.5) beats visiting Jacksonville 42-20.
Last week against the Spread:
Buffalo loses but covers; Kansas City covers.
Analysis:
Coach Todd Haley has helped the Chiefs maintain their focus, but if their collective mind is ever to wander, this might be the time. If the Chiefs pound effectively with the running game, hit some big plays in the passing game and bend but don't break much on defense, they should have an easy time. Take points and Buffalo.
Be a player and bet on Buffalo (+7.5) at Kansas City at Bodog Sportsbook
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Last week’s result:
Tampa Bay (-2.5) beats host St-Louis 18-17. Arizona (+5.5) loses to host Seattle 22-10.
Last week against the Spread:
Tampa Bay wins but does not cover; Arizona loses but does not cover.
Analysis:
Raheem Morris' boast aside, his Buccaneers are not the best team in the NFC. In fact, they aren't even favored Sunday against the Cardinals. The Bucs are young, improving and should not be overlooked. But Arizona is 9-0 after losses since December of 2008. The Cardinals usually play well at home, and the Bucs don't have an abundance of weapons. If the Cardinals don't commit turnovers by the bunches, as is their tendency, they should win. Take Cardinals.
Be a player and bet on Tampa Bay (+2.5) at Arizona at Bodog Sportsbook
- Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) at Oakland Raiders
Last week’s result:
Last week against the Spread:
Seattle covers; Oakland upsets.
Analysis:
The Raiders are fresh off a record-setting game in which they scored 59 points in a thrashing of the Broncos. This is a game the Raiders feel they should win, and they are primed to do so in advance of a divisional showdown with the first-place Chiefs. The one-two punch of McFadden and Bush figures to wear down the Seahawks defense and set up the Raiders' improving passing game. The Seahawks are adept at keeping games close, but they don't have the offensive firepower and a sure-fire way to succeed in the passing game. Take Raiders.
Be a player and bet on Seattle (+2.5) at Oakland at Bodog Sportsbook
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arizona cardinals - buffalo bills - carolina panthers - cincinnati bengals - dallas cowboys - denver broncos - detroit lions - jacksonville jaguars - jon kitna - kansas city chiefs
